La oposición venezolana inscribió este martes a un candidato “provisionalmente”, después de que el Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) impidiera la postulación de Corina Yoris para las elecciones presidenciales. El aspirante inscrito es el diplomático Edmundo González Urrutia, quien fue embajador de Venezuela en Argentina y Argelia. “Hemos decidido inscribir provisionalmente al Presidente de la Directiva del partido Mesa de la Unidad Democrática, ciudadano Edmundo González Urrutia, para preservar el ejercicio de los derechos políticos que le corresponden a nuestra organización política hasta que logremos inscribir nuestra candidatura unitaria”, informó la Plataforma Unitaria Democrática (PUD) en su cuenta de X, antes Twitter. Texto Completo -> BBCMundo

Yoris, who has never held office, now faces the challenge of maintaining the enthusiasm that Machado managed to spark among opposition supporters and skeptics last year — a tall order with only four months left before the election in which Maduro is seeking six more years in office.Polling suggests that Venezuelans overwhelmingly want to go to the polls and would trounce Maduro if given half a chance. And while Machado is their preferred candidate, a majority of opposition supporters wanted her to yield to someone else rather than have the opposition essentially sit out the race. By Regina Garcia Cano and Jorge Rueda. Full Text -> APNews

And, once again, the question is: How democratic will the election be? Venezuelans were promised a presidential election in the second half of 2024 after Maduro and the faction of the opposition backed by the United States government reached an agreement in October. The opposing sides also agreed to recognize and respect a party’s right to choose a candidate freely; take steps that would reverse government decisions blocking politicians from running for office; and invite international electoral observers. The government over the past three months has shown it is willing to test the limits of the agreement, discrediting the opposition’s presidential primary, arresting numerous perceived or actual adversaries, and repeatedly characterizing members of the opposition as hate-spewing criminals.But the biggest test came Friday, when Venezuela’s highest cour t – aligned with Maduro’s government – blocked the presidential candidacy of María Corina Machado by upholding an administrative decision that bans her on running for office for 15 years.“I don’t think we have any evidence that Maduro plans to allow a competitive election so far,” said Geoff Ramsey, senior analyst on Venezuela at the Atlantic Council think tank. “What we are seeing is the government making clear that they don’t plan on going anywhere any time soon.” By Regina Garcia Cano. Full Text -> TWP

The government and opposition leaders agreed to terms last week for elections in the second half of 2024. The Biden administration rewarded the government the next day by easing sanctions against Venezuela’s oil, gas and gold industries. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States had “conveyed our expectation and understanding” that before the end of November, Maduro will “define a specific timeline and process for the expedited reinstatement of all” candidates in upcoming elections, including “all who want to run for president” next year, on a “level electoral playing field.” By Ana Vanessa Herrero, Samantha Schmid and María Luisa Paúl. Full Text -> TheWashingtonPost

Though never reliable in Venezuela, where free speech is scant and censorship rife, polls say Machado is ahead with 41% of the vote.“I think Venezuelans still think she is radical, but they feel so abandoned by the previous opposition leadership, and so hopeless. They need leadership and they need hope – and I think that’s what people see in Maria Corina Machado: their last hope,” said Maria Puerta Riera, a Venezuelan political scientist at Valencia College in Orlando.Machado’s central campaign pledge is toppling Maduro and getting the country’s collapsed economy back on its feet. By Luke Taylor. Full Text -> The Guardian

Por Alfredo Michelena

La elección de María Corina Machado en las primarias abre una nueva etapa en la política nacional. Nos enfrentamos a un mes de definiciones bajo un ultimátum del gobierno norteamericano. y nos proyectamos hacia unas elecciones presidenciales que, en el mejor de los casos, no meterá en otra cohabitación con el castrochavismo.

Las primarias fueron una fiesta cívica que mostró el lado positivo de este bello país. Mostró que hay mucha, pero mucha “gente de bien”, como decía mi abuela, dispuesta a dar su aporte por una Venezuela mejor. Aquella Venezuela con la que soñamos antes y que muchos tratamos de construir, pero que “el lado obscuro de la fuerza”, que ya habitaba entre nosotros,  lo fue socavando sin que muchos lo notaran. Ese sueño, que no ha muerto, vuelve frente a nosotros en estos días.

Claro que el castrochavismo nos hamaquea para despertarnos del sueño, luego de darnos un poco de cuerda. Así, nos dejó disfrutar poco del acuerdo  de Barbados que marcó una hoja de ruta que nos llevaría, si se cumple, a unas elecciones medianamente justas en 2024. Sí, “medianamente libres y justas”, no nos hagamos ilusiones, en las que podamos ejercer nuestro único poder, el del voto, y empujar para que una avalancha cívica haga trepidar y caer al régimen.

El otro contrapoder es EE.UU. con sus sanciones. Sin dudas, esas sanciones son la única fuerza que se opone a la que ejerce el régimen. Ellos tienen todo el aparato represivo y operativo de Estado y nosotros, la oposición, el poder del voto y las sanciones de los EEUU. Así de simple.

Ahora bien, ¿Por qué noviembre es clave?

 Los del “lado obscuro” no dejaron mucho margen de felicidad luego de la firma del acuerdo. J. Rodríguez, el vengador, aseguró que todo lo firmado estará condicionado a las leyes venezolanas, que claro ellos interpretan, que nada de Misiones de Observación  Electoral y lo más radical, que las inhabilitaciones no se levantarían, lo que incluye la de la candidata unitaria María Corina Machado.

Así las cosas, EE.UU. le lanzó rápidamente un ultimátum. En un comunicado del Secretario de Estado Antony Blinken, se dejó claro que antes que termine noviembre, Maduro  deberá “definir un cronograma y un proceso específico para la reinstalación acelerada de todos” los candidatos en las próximas elecciones, incluidos “todos los que quieran postularse para presidente”, léase levantar las inhabilitaciones,  y “comenzar la liberación de todos los ciudadanos estadounidenses y presos políticos venezolanos detenidos injustamente”. De lo contrario, las sanciones suspendidas serán reinstaladas.

Así, noviembre será un mes muy agitado donde los aliados de Maduro, en su coalición mafiosa, deberán evaluar si quieren disfrutar del pastel que se les brinda, arriesgando perder el poder ejecutivo, pero manteniendo todos los demás, o prefieren el status quo. 

A los dueños del voto, es decir, a nosotros, nos queda esperar y aportar, en la medida de lo posible, argumentos y acciones que aseguren la unidad y favorezcan las elecciones de 2024. Las cuales en el mejor de los casos nos dará el control parcial de una parte del Estado: el Poder Ejecutivo. Es decir, viviremos otra cohabitación política con el chavismo. Ya lo hicimos cuando ganamos la Asamblea en 2015.

Hay que preparase evaluando nuestras fallas y aciertos, para avanzar. ¿Habremos aprendido¿, En fin, ¿Lo aguantaremos nosotros? ¿Lo aguantarán ellos? Y si no, ¿podrá darse una rebelión cívica? Así de complejo será nuestro futuro. 

As part of the informal deal, the US would be willing to lift some oil and banking sanctions on Venezuela once Caracas announces measures to hold its presidential elections in a more democratic fashion, the people said. Those steps would include removing a ban on all opposition candidates to run for office. Once those conditions are met, the US would be open to lifting penalties on both Venezuela’s central bank and the state-owned development bank, giving the administration of President Nicolas Maduro a path to reengage with financial institutions to recover at least $3 billion held in accounts in Europe, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the fragile discussions. Sanctions relief being considered by President Joe Biden’s administration would also extend to members of Maduro’s entourage, the people said, though it’s not expected to include prominent financiers such as Alex Saab, a top Maduro ally who has been imprisoned in the US since 2021. By: Jennifer Jacobs, Andreina Itriago Acosta and Eric Martin . Full Text-> AJOT

Venezuela today remains gripped by severe and interlocking political, economic, humanitarian, and security crises. More than seven million people have fled the country, and while the repressive Maduro regime proclaims “Venezuela se arregló” (“Venezuela has been fixed”), for many Venezuelans, insufficient access to food and basic needs, lack of economic opportunity, and persistent insecurity remain unchanged and, in some cases, worsened. Amid these conditions of profound need, further uncertainty looms following the dissolution of the interim presidency structure and whether elections currently scheduled to take place in 2024 will take place and under what conditions. Yet despite a shifting international and domestic context, providing continued assistance to the Venezuelan people, as well as pressure against the brutal Maduro regime to engage with negotiations in good faith remain paramount. This event will feature Juan Guaidó, former Interim President of Venezuela, to share insights into the above challenges and identify avenues forward. It will emphasize in particular the current situation and humanitarian challenges in Venezuela, and the ongoing efforts towards a peaceful democratic transition. This event is made possible through general support to CSIS. Access to video-> Youtube

Nicolás Maduro has held Venezuela’s top job for 10 years, and his power has grown stronger. Sanctions against Venezuela have been in place since 2006 when the US banned arms sales due to its ties with rogue states like Cuba and Iran. During the Trump administration, sanctions prohibiting purchases of Venezuelan debt were implemented, which has caused an impact on a Venezuela’s economy that already was in crisis. From one of the highest per capita income rates in Latin America, the country now suffers from hyperinflation and oil output has significantly decreased. Corruption, underinvestment, and mismanagement have also contributed to the country’s economic distress.

Despite Western sanctions, Venezuela’s Maduro has managed to maintain the country’s political and economic stability through agreements with other heavily sanctioned states, like Iran, Russia, China, and Turkey. Venezuela has received billions of dollars in loans from China in exchange for oil, thus violating US sanctions. Russia has also provided funds to keep Venezuela afloat. Additionally, Venezuela has sent billions of dollars worth of gold to Iran in exchange for oil, gas, and food, deepening the relationship between the two countries. Maduro has also benefited from leftist governments in Latin America, who share his anti-imperialist ideology resulting in deepening ties with Caracas.

Maduro’s stability has been aided by a weak and ineffective opposition, which critics attribute to former opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s lack of progress in bringing the country to new elections and gaining military support. Guaidó’s popular support has also dramatically decreased. Recent actions by the Biden administration suggest that they may have been more cautious if dealing with a potent and respected opposition. However, Venezuela is not fixed, and half of the Venezuelan population continues to live in poverty amid one of the world’s largest refugee crises. Maduro’s political future appears secure, because: “unfree and unfair” elections are expected next year.

This is a summary of the article -> “Maduro’s not going anywhere. What comes next for Venezuela?” By Gabrielle Debinski

In a sharp reversal of strategy, Venezuela’s main opposition parties plan to compete in 2024 presidential elections no matter what conditions the government agrees to beforehand. Emboldened by this year’s gubernatorial victory in the Chavista stronghold of Barinas, a cattle-raising state in western Venezuela, opposition parties plans to unite behind a single leader, according to interviews with seven officials in the parties. ByAndreina Itriago Acosta and Patricia Laya. Full Text -> Bloomberg

Traducción de cortesía ->

En un cambio brusco de estrategia, los principales partidos de oposición de Venezuela planean competir en las elecciones presidenciales de 2024 sin importar las condiciones que el gobierno acuerde de antemano. Envalentonados por la victoria de gobernador de este año en el bastión chavista de Barinas, un estado ganadero en el oeste de Venezuela, los partidos de oposición planean unirse detrás de un solo líder, según entrevistas con siete funcionarios de los partidos.