En 2013, Nicolás Maduro afirmó que un pajarito transmitía que Hugo Chávez era alegre y lleno de amor por el pueblo. Se desconoce el destino del ave, y se teme que haya enfrentado persecución o haya huido de Venezuela como millones de ciudadanos. A pesar de las declaraciones e iniciativas a menudo ridiculizadas de Maduro, como el Viceministerio de Suprema Felicidad Social, enmascaran el sufrimiento de miles de personas bajo su régimen. Las próximas elecciones del 28 de julio presentan un raro rayo de esperanza para Venezuela y América Latina, donde las democracias luchan contra el creciente autoritarismo. A nivel internacional, el ambiente es menos favorable para Maduro, con voces críticas de líderes de izquierda como Lula de Brasil y Petro de Colombia, y Boric de Chile, que condenan el proceso electoral de Venezuela como antidemocrático. Al mismo tiempo, la dinámica política estadounidense, especialmente con la posibilidad de un regreso de Trump, podría presionar a Maduro, lo que impulsaría sus renovadas conversaciones con la administración de Biden. La Corte Penal Internacional continúa investigando presuntos crímenes de lesa humanidad en Venezuela. Según el principio de jurisdicción universal, varios casos internacionales podrían conducir a juicios y posibles arrestos de funcionarios venezolanos, sentando importantes precedentes legales contra la impunidad. El crecimiento de la extrema derecha está impactando la política internacional y afectará a Venezuela. El presidente argentino Milei mencionó posibles sanciones contra Maduro, respaldadas por el respaldo de Bolsonaro a una posible intervención militar estadounidense. Los líderes europeos de extrema derecha también han criticado a Maduro y han pedido sanciones más duras de la UE. La invasión rusa de Ucrania pone a prueba su economía y reduce su capacidad para apoyar a Venezuela. Este contexto internacional en evolución, junto con las encuestas electorales desfavorables, desafía el control de Maduro en el poder. Existen preocupaciones sobre la voluntad de Maduro de aceptar los resultados electorales y renunciar al poder pacíficamente. La paciencia de la comunidad internacional está disminuyendo y cualquier represión podría tener consecuencias por parte de la CPI. Negociar con la oposición y adaptarse al nuevo panorama internacional podría ser la mejor opción de Maduro. Una anécdota sobre la presunta comunicación de Maduro con el espíritu de Chávez a través de una mariposa amarillas , de las de García Márquez, añade un toque peculiar, posiblemente insinuando una advertencia metafórica.

La influencia de Cuba en Venezuela, que ha sido un tema de debate durante 25 años, será cuestionada a partir del 28 de julio. Los analistas han descrito a menudo a Venezuela como una colonia cubana bajo el régimen chavista. La relación entre los dos países ha estado marcada por una estrecha cooperación, particularmente a través de programas como la Misión Barrio Adentro, que involucra a profesionales médicos cubanos y que jugó un papel crucial en las victorias electorales de Hugo Chávez. Los asesores cubanos también han tenido influencia en las reformas militares y de inteligencia venezolanas. Sin embargo, esta cooperación tuvo un costo para Venezuela, que compartió sus sustanciales ingresos petroleros con Cuba, suministrando hasta 120.000 barriles de petróleo por día hasta 2014. A pesar de la disminución en la producción de petróleo de Venezuela después de 2016, los envíos a Cuba, aunque reducidos, han continuado. El gobierno cubano ha tratado de mantener su influencia discreta, con poca evidencia física de que funcionarios cubanos participen en operaciones de seguridad interna venezolanas. Recientemente, la presencia de la influencia cubana parece haber disminuido, reemplazada por intereses rusos e iraníes, a medida que las dificultades económicas han presionado a ambas naciones, reduciendo el alcance operativo de Cuba en Venezuela. La isla de Cuba está experimentando un importante descontento y dificultades económicas. Desde las protestas de julio de 2021, el régimen comunista ha estado trabajando duro para mantener el control. En particular, el desfile anual del Día Internacional de los Trabajadores fue cancelado debido a la grave escasez de gasolina, lo que provocó largas colas de combustible en La Habana. La economía cubana entró oficialmente en recesión en 2016 cuando los suministros de petróleo venezolano disminuyeron, lo que provocó recortes en los servicios públicos y escasez de bienes esenciales. Venezuela, que alguna vez fue un proveedor clave, ha reducido significativamente sus envíos de combustible, lo que obligó a Cuba a buscar otros proveedores más costosos. Los desastres naturales como el huracán Ian han sobrecargado aún más la infraestructura, provocando cortes masivos de energía. El efecto acumulativo de estas condiciones ha llevado a más de 330.000 cubanos a emigrar a Estados Unidos en 2023, superando récords de éxodo anteriores. Los factores externos incluyen la interrupción del apoyo ruso debido a la invasión de Ucrania, la reducción del turismo durante la pandemia y las sanciones estadounidenses bajo la administración Trump. No obstante, la mala gestión interna sigue siendo un problema central. Las reformas económicas temporales de 2021 proporcionaron un breve alivio, pero finalmente fueron revertidas. La relación de larga data entre Cuba y Venezuela ha sido mutuamente perjudicial, con ambas naciones en graves dificultades económicas y dependiendo de la posible asistencia de China, que sigue siendo pragmática y cautelosa. Texto Original por Pedro Benitez, publicado en->AlNavio

This Sunday’s presidential election in Venezuela, contested by opposition candidate Edmundo González against incumbent Nicolas Maduro, is fraught with tension and uncertainty. Maduro, in power since 2013, has been criticized for electoral fraud and using public institutions to maintain control. Recent reports indicate over 70 arbitrary detentions during the election campaign, but the opposition’s campaign has revitalized its support base, making this Maduro’s toughest electoral challenge in 25 years. The stakes are high, with Venezuela’s economic future on the line. Under Maduro, Venezuela has suffered severe economic decline, exacerbated by US sanctions. If González wins, there is potential for significant change, including the lifting of sanctions and Venezuela leveraging its vast oil reserves to become an energy hub. The international implications of an upcoming election in Venezuela could be significant. If Nicolás Maduro secures victory, it is anticipated that migration from Venezuela will continue, with 18% of surveyed Venezuelans intending to leave by year-end. Maduro’s government remains closely aligned with China, Iran, and Russia, while isolating Venezuela from regional entities like the Organization of American States and Mercosur. Conversely, a win by democratic opposition candidate Gonzalez would be historic, potentially shifting geopolitical dynamics. Gonzalez aims to restore ties with democratic nations, work with international financial organizations, and depoliticize state institutions. His victory could symbolize a revival of representative democracy against a backdrop of global democratic crises. Original text by Stefano Pozzebon, published in -> MicrosoftStar

Uncertainty looms over Venezuela as it approaches presidential elections, with concerns that incumbent Nicolas Maduro will manipulate the results to outdo opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who leads in polls. Maduro, aiming for a third term amidst an economic crisis, warns that the election outcome will determine whether Venezuela remains peaceful or becomes conflict-ridden. Analysts believe the elections are already compromised, potentially leading to a contested outcome and violence. Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has been barred from the race on alleged corruption charges, leaving Gonzalez Urrutia as the opposition’s candidate. Despite Machado’s active campaign for Gonzalez, there are ongoing reports of arrests and political persecution. Maduro’s government, rejected by many Western and Latin American countries since his disputed 2018 reelection, still retains support from key domestic institutions and international allies like Cuba, Russia, and China. The country faces dire economic conditions, prompting millions to emigrate, while Maduro vows to maintain his grip on power regardless of public discontent. the majority of Venezuelans live on a few dollars a month, with deteriorating healthcare and education systems. Ana Colmenares, a 20-year-old student, expressed hopelessness for the country’s future, having only known the “Chavismo” era of Chavez and Maduro. The government attributes the economic situation to U.S. sanctions, but observers point to longstanding corruption and mismanagement, particularly in the oil industry. Political analysts, including Luis Salamanca and Rebecca Hanson, doubt a fair electoral process, suggesting potential disqualification of opposition candidate Gonzalez and possible massive fraud by Maduro’s government. Michael Shifter predicts a political crisis following the election, with international condemnation and potential for political negotiation. With 21 million eligible voters, the risk of unrest is high, especially after Venezuela rescinded an invitation for EU election observers, while allowing monitors from the UN and the Carter Center. Original text published in -> VoA

Ahead of the July 28 elections, Venezuela’s opposition, led by María Corina Machado and her proxy candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, is gaining significant momentum against President Nicolás Maduro. Historically unchallenged, Maduro’s grip on power now faces erosion as former supporters shift allegiances. González Urrutia, polling at 50-60 percent compared to Maduro’s 10-30 percent, represents a broad coalition including dissident Chavistas, democratic socialists, and Marxist-Leninists. This shift comes amidst a profound humanitarian crisis and economic collapse that has driven millions to flee the country. Despite repression, censorship, and sham elections under Maduro’s regime, the opposition pushed for fairer elections, gaining partial international support. Civil society-organized opposition primaries saw Machado win overwhelmingly, reflecting increased political activism. However, significant challenges remain, as Maduro’s regime could still manipulate the electoral process by banning candidates, rescheduling elections, or provoking conflict, particularly over the contested Esequibo region. As the elections approach, the opposition’s unified effort under González Urrutia aims at democratic transition, despite potential extreme tactics from the ruling regime. The upcoming election in Venezuela poses significant challenges amid some of the worst conditions in 25 years. The National Electoral Council (CNE), dominated by Chavistas, has barred many opposition parties from the ballot. While the Maduro regime initially invited electoral observation missions from the Carter Center, European Union (EU), and United Nations (U.N.) following a sanctions relief deal with the U.S., the EU has since been disinvited. Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has promoted grassroots groups called comanditos to mobilize voters and plans to deploy 600,000 volunteer polling station witnesses, with 98% already in place. Despite these efforts, opposition supporters may face harassment and violence from Chavista sympathizers, potentially deterring participation. Media coverage of opposition rallies and government crackdowns has increased, with over 70 opposition-related individuals detained in early July. International pressure on Maduro is mounting, with the U.S. reimposing sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry and criticism from Colombia and Brazil concerning the electoral conditions. Colombian President Gustavo Petro, serving as a political mediator, has called for guarantees of political rights and safety for election losers, sparking discussions on political guarantees and amnesty post-Maduro. However, such processes are complicated by the regime’s alleged human rights violations, which are under investigation by the International Criminal Court. Despite the hurdles, there remains a sense of optimism and resilience among many Venezuelans seeking an end to Maduro’s regime. Original text by Tony Frangie-Mawad, published in-> ForeignPolicy

Un estudio del Centro de Estudios Políticos y de Gobierno de la Universidad Católica Andrés Bello (UCAB) de Venezuela indica que Edmundo González Urrutia, el candidato de la Plataforma Unitaria Democrática, tiene una intención de voto del 59,1%, muy por delante de Nicolás Maduro. que se sitúa en el 24,6%. El estudio, que encuestó a 1.200 electores registrados mayores de 18 años, fue presentado durante el evento Prospectiva Venezuela 2024 – II Semestre. El estudio encontró que más del 70% de los encuestados cree que es necesario un cambio de gobierno y que la probabilidad de una alta participación electoral es alta. Además, el 46,8% de los encuestados expresó disposición a protestar en caso de fraude electoral. Esto refleja una ventaja política significativa para la oposición, ya que los partidarios del gobierno muestran una mayor intención de voto en comparación con los partidarios de Maduro. Si la participación electoral de la oposición continúa hasta el 28 de julio, podría resultar en una victoria electoral sorprendente, presentando al gobierno un dilema entre reconocer los resultados o imponer un resultado fraudulento, lo que podría conducir a un conflicto, especialmente entre los jóvenes. Si bien el candidato opositor, González, es reconocido por los participantes del estudio, existe malestar por el desconocimiento de él; sin embargo, se espera que transmita confianza. El crecimiento económico es un objetivo postelectoral clave, y el director de Ecoanalítica enfatiza el objetivo de un crecimiento de dos dígitos, beneficiando particularmente a los sectores petrolero, manufacturero y de la construcción, con negociaciones críticas que involucran a Estados Unidos y China. El escenario electoral ha visto una fuerte participación internacional con naciones como Noruega, República Dominicana, México, Barbados y Doha que presionan por elecciones libres y transparentes, mientras que los aliados del gobierno venezolano, incluidos Rusia, Irán y China, también desempeñan papeles importantes. Texto Original por Arianna Villaescusa, publicado en -> AS

Hace un mes, figuras clave del chavismo recibieron alarmantes encuestas que indicaban que el candidato opositor Edmundo González Urrutia había superado rápidamente al presidente en ejercicio Nicolás Maduro en intención de voto. La situación era crítica para Maduro, su principal operador político, Jorge Rodríguez, y el organizador del partido Diosdado Cabello. Los datos también llegaron a Gustavo Petro y Lula Da Silva, quienes vieron una oportunidad para una transición pacífica a la democracia después de 25 años de chavismo. A pesar de esto, Maduro y sus partidarios no han dado señales de tener la intención de renunciar al poder. Sostienen que la victoria de Edmundo es un escenario “supuestamente negado”, considerándolo esencialmente imposible. El chavismo todavía confía en su capacidad de movilización, aunque encuestas fiables lo sitúan muy por detrás de la oposición. En el Palacio de Miraflores prevalece la desconfianza y las aportaciones externas se consideran amenazas. El chavismo sospecha que las encuestas privadas están manipuladas y cree que el mundo conspira contra ellas. Sin embargo, internamente, algunos miembros del PSUV reconocen una encuesta que muestra a Edmundo liderando por 14 puntos. Diez días antes de las elecciones, los dirigentes siguen confiando en revertir estas cifras, suponiendo unas elecciones justas y competitivas. El optimismo del chavismo se basa en un “estudio antropológico” que sugiere que los venezolanos ven a Maduro como “el fuerte” y a Edmundo como “el débil”, con continuas referencias a la edad de Edmundo de 74 años. Establecen paralelismos naturales con los debates en torno al presidente estadounidense Joe Biden. Los hechos blandos dentro del régimen hablan de una victoria democrática o de admitir la derrota si el voto lo dicta. Mientras tanto, los partidarios de la línea dura insisten en continuar la revolución bolivariana a cualquier precio, elogiando el manejo de las crisis por parte de Maduro y evitando el colapso nacional a pesar de las sanciones. Aunque Venezuela perdió el 80% de su PIB en siete años, según el FMI, los chavistas afirman que las peores crisis han sido superadas y predicen mejores relaciones con Estados Unidos. Sin embargo, los datos de las encuestas son sombríos para el chavismo. El Centro de Estudios Políticos y de Gobierno de la Universidad Católica Andrés Bello y Delphos Polling indican que Edmundo ganaría con el 59,1% de los votos frente al 25% de Maduro. A pesar de esto, el núcleo del chavismo cree que su aumento electoral continuará en la última semana, aunque muchos de afuera lo ven como poco probable. Texto Original Juan Diego Quesada, publicado en-> ElPaís

Venezuela’s upcoming presidential election, set for July 28, could potentially end President Nicolas Maduro’s regime if the opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, secures a victory. However, doubts remain about whether Maduro will honor such an outcome, given his control over various instruments of power, including the military. The Venezuelan military, a crucial pillar of Maduro’s administration, is faced with a significant decision: to uphold democratic principles or continue supporting Maduro. Despite the military’s historical loyalty, there are compelling reasons to believe they may not stand by Maduro as steadfastly as in the past due to issues such as declining morale, desertions, and increasingly complex relations with armed groups. The system of clientelism and loyalty enforced within the military could be weakening, and there are signs that even regime supporters may defect at the polls. Observing historical precedents from Brazil and Chile, there could be a shift in military allegiance favoring democratic transition. Maduro and his allies have publicly acknowledged the uncertainties ahead and expressed willingness to negotiate post-election, potentially setting the stage for a peaceful transfer of power. The Venezuelan military faces significant challenges that could influence their support for Maduro’s regime. Unlike after the 2018 election, current conditions expose deep issues within the armed forces, including low morale and increased desertions. The military’s uneasy relationships with internal armed groups, intensified since the COVID-19 pandemic, add to their difficulties. Although the military has combated criminal gangs, operations have been brutal and ineffective, burdening lower-ranking soldiers. Moreover, Venezuelan authorities have formed a tenuous coexistence with Colombian insurgent groups such as the ELN, which operates within Venezuela and cooperates in some governance functions. Conversely, ex-FARC factions pose a direct threat by kidnapping Venezuelan soldiers, exposing the military’s vulnerabilities. Despite pressures to support the regime, military personnel may defect, influenced by the PSUV’s strained clientelist model and expanded polling stations designed to complicate election oversight. Historical precedents such as the 1989 Caracazo suggest potential fractures within the military structure. Acknowledging these uncertainties, Maduro proposes national dialogue and negotiations with the U.S. to mitigate further crises. Ultimately, serving under impartial leadership that respects democratic choices may appeal to the military, drawing lessons from Brazil and Chile’s experiences. Original text by Kristina Mani, published in -> MicrosoftStar

On July 28, up to twenty-one million Venezuelans will vote in a significant presidential and vice-presidential election, the most open contest in over a decade. The election pits incumbent President Nicolás Maduro, seeking a third six-year term, against leading opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia and eight other contenders. Maduro’s tenure has seen severe economic decline, with the GDP shrinking by approximately three-quarters and widespread poverty affecting over 80% of the population. This period also saw the migration of nearly eight million Venezuelans, escaping dire conditions to primarily other Latin American and Caribbean countries, with nearly three million now residing in Colombia. Edmundo González Urrutia, backed by the main opposition coalition Unitary Platform, currently leads in independent polls. His proposals include restoring democratic institutions, freedom of expression, and releasing political prisoners. Economically, González Urrutia supports significant reforms including privatizing state-owned enterprises and seeking international loans to address an estimated $150 billion debt. Conversely, Maduro has seen his support diminish, as his administration faces international scrutiny and has reluctantly agreed to a competitively monitored election in exchange for lifted sanctions on the oil sector. The stakes are high; a win for González Urrutia may revitalize democracy in Venezuela and stabilize the economy, while Maduro’s victory might lead to continued authoritarian governance and further emigration. Migration trends show many Venezuelans fleeing the country, with significant numbers reaching the United States. The election occurs following years of election boycotts and manipulated processes, now under international oversight, presenting a rare opportunity for change in Venezuela’s political landscape. The Venezuelan supreme court banned Machado’s candidacy in January 2024. The main opposition parties endorsed González Urrutia, but the government blocked Machado’s replacement just before the registration deadline, leading the U.S. to reinstate sectoral sanctions. The prospect of free and fair elections is questionable, with the government likely to suppress votes, arrest journalists, and disqualify candidates. Around eight million eligible voters are unregistered due to technical and administrative barriers, and few international monitors will oversee the elections. The government has increased attacks and arrests of opposition supporters and journalists. Potential election outcomes include a relatively free and fair election where Maduro could lose, a manipulated result where Maduro wins, or a scenario where González Urrutia is disqualified. González Urrutia has strong polling numbers, but low voter turnout and Maduro’s control over government resources and media could tilt the election in his favor. If Maduro loses, legal protections and international pressure might influence a peaceful transition, but dominance over judiciary and security forces could enable him to contest unfavorable results. Original text by Expert Brief by Shannon K. O’Neil and Julia Huesa. published in -> CouncilofForieignRelations

Venezuela’s upcoming elections on July 28 are highly anticipated, with many viewing the day as a potential turning point for liberty, human rights, and economic prosperity. Nearly 8 million Venezuelans have fled economic mismanagement and authoritarianism under the Maduro regime. This year, however, feels different due to the strong leadership of opposition figures Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who have exposed the regime’s weaknesses and rallied significant support. Polls show Maduro facing considerable losses, but the regime is expected to resist relinquishing power. Several scenarios could unfold, the first one is: the postponement or cancellation of the election through fabricated conspiracies or a manufactured national crisis, notably involving a territorial dispute with Guyana. Such actions could be risky, potentially destabilizing the military and inciting further unrest. The U.S. and the international community need to prepare for these contingencies, recognizing the regime’s determination to maintain its grip on power despite widespread opposition and dwindling legitimacy. The second scenario: If the election is not postponed or canceled, the regime aims to achieve high voter abstention rates by implementing various obstacles, particularly for out-of-country voters. Although the Venezuelan constitution allows citizens abroad to vote, bureaucratic barriers significantly hinder the registration process, affecting millions of potential voters. Domestically, Maduro manipulates voting centers by reducing their numbers, relocating them without notice, and disqualifying opposition leaders, creating confusion and decreasing voter turnout. Scenario three:  the regime may proceed with an election, using its control over the National Electoral Council (CNE) to announce favorable results without substantial evidence. The playbook for committing electoral fraud includes moving polling centers, staffing them with regime loyalists, and providing incentives to supporters. The regime also intimidates opposition voters through harassment and strategically slows down voting processes in opposition strongholds. The opposition has mobilized monitors to counter these tactics, but recent CNE rules have restricted their ability to oversee polling stations, potentially impacting the election outcome significantly. It suggests that Maduro’s regime might suppress protests, rely on support from authoritarian allies like Russia, China, and Iran, and ignore international pressure unless faced with substantial consequences such as sanctions. The public’s exhaustion and daily struggles are seen as factors that could limit the extent of unrest. The worst-case scenario for Maduro is compared to Bolivia’s Evo Morales, who had to step down after a fraudulent election. The fourth one: another highly unlikely scenario is “opposition-regime cohabitation” where Maduro might allow a slightly manipulated election result and then derail a transition to the opposition through endless negotiations, potentially including a “power sharing” agreement. Maduro could appoint “loyal oppositions” to create an illusion of a unity government. The conclusion highlights the dissolution of Juan Guaidó’s interim government in 2023 and emphasizes that opposition efforts have exposed the Maduro regime’s reliance on brute force. The text underscores the importance of a united opposition and a prepared international community in facing Maduro’s tactics. Original text by by Ryan C. Berg and Alexandra Winkler, published in-> CSIS