At various checkpoints, Venezuelan forces in green fatigues stop vehicles returning from rallies opposing President Nicolás Maduro. These stops, common before the presidential election, aim to intimidate critics and sometimes solicit small bribes. Despite this, some soldiers express discontent with Maduro and interest in change. Maduro has increased efforts to secure loyalty from the armed forces by promoting officers and appearing at public ceremonies. Recently, he praised police as defenders against right-wing threats and promoted his defense minister to “General of the Sovereign People.” The top military brass, traditionally neutral, now openly support Maduro and engage in political rhetoric. Maduro’s connection to the military dates back to his mentor Hugo Chávez’s era, with the military playing a crucial role in his power retention. Maduro has empowered his own allies within the military, despite facing corruption and human rights abuse allegations. The National Guard in Venezuela has imported anti-riot gear and refurbished armored vehicles to address potential protests. Retired Gen. Rodolfo Camacho reports that half of the 301 political prisoners are military members who opposed Maduro. Discontent is growing among soldiers due to the country’s economic collapse, which has led to increased desertion. Former U.S. Ambassador William Brownfield notes that low-ranking military personnel are particularly susceptible to opposition messages. Gen. Manuel Cristopher Figuera suggests that defiance against Maduro might manifest in a refusal to repress protesters, rather than outright rebellion. Opposition leaders and many Venezuelans are preparing for possible protests after the election. Some see Defense Minister Padrino as a potential key figure, recalling his past acceptance of opposition victories and historical shifts by Venezuela’s military leadership. Original Text by Joshua Goodman and Regina Garcia Cano, published in -> KGET

La influencia de Cuba en Venezuela, que ha sido un tema de debate durante 25 años, será cuestionada a partir del 28 de julio. Los analistas han descrito a menudo a Venezuela como una colonia cubana bajo el régimen chavista. La relación entre los dos países ha estado marcada por una estrecha cooperación, particularmente a través de programas como la Misión Barrio Adentro, que involucra a profesionales médicos cubanos y que jugó un papel crucial en las victorias electorales de Hugo Chávez. Los asesores cubanos también han tenido influencia en las reformas militares y de inteligencia venezolanas. Sin embargo, esta cooperación tuvo un costo para Venezuela, que compartió sus sustanciales ingresos petroleros con Cuba, suministrando hasta 120.000 barriles de petróleo por día hasta 2014. A pesar de la disminución en la producción de petróleo de Venezuela después de 2016, los envíos a Cuba, aunque reducidos, han continuado. El gobierno cubano ha tratado de mantener su influencia discreta, con poca evidencia física de que funcionarios cubanos participen en operaciones de seguridad interna venezolanas. Recientemente, la presencia de la influencia cubana parece haber disminuido, reemplazada por intereses rusos e iraníes, a medida que las dificultades económicas han presionado a ambas naciones, reduciendo el alcance operativo de Cuba en Venezuela. La isla de Cuba está experimentando un importante descontento y dificultades económicas. Desde las protestas de julio de 2021, el régimen comunista ha estado trabajando duro para mantener el control. En particular, el desfile anual del Día Internacional de los Trabajadores fue cancelado debido a la grave escasez de gasolina, lo que provocó largas colas de combustible en La Habana. La economía cubana entró oficialmente en recesión en 2016 cuando los suministros de petróleo venezolano disminuyeron, lo que provocó recortes en los servicios públicos y escasez de bienes esenciales. Venezuela, que alguna vez fue un proveedor clave, ha reducido significativamente sus envíos de combustible, lo que obligó a Cuba a buscar otros proveedores más costosos. Los desastres naturales como el huracán Ian han sobrecargado aún más la infraestructura, provocando cortes masivos de energía. El efecto acumulativo de estas condiciones ha llevado a más de 330.000 cubanos a emigrar a Estados Unidos en 2023, superando récords de éxodo anteriores. Los factores externos incluyen la interrupción del apoyo ruso debido a la invasión de Ucrania, la reducción del turismo durante la pandemia y las sanciones estadounidenses bajo la administración Trump. No obstante, la mala gestión interna sigue siendo un problema central. Las reformas económicas temporales de 2021 proporcionaron un breve alivio, pero finalmente fueron revertidas. La relación de larga data entre Cuba y Venezuela ha sido mutuamente perjudicial, con ambas naciones en graves dificultades económicas y dependiendo de la posible asistencia de China, que sigue siendo pragmática y cautelosa. Texto Original por Pedro Benitez, publicado en->AlNavio

Venezuela’s upcoming presidential election, set for July 28, could potentially end President Nicolas Maduro’s regime if the opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, secures a victory. However, doubts remain about whether Maduro will honor such an outcome, given his control over various instruments of power, including the military. The Venezuelan military, a crucial pillar of Maduro’s administration, is faced with a significant decision: to uphold democratic principles or continue supporting Maduro. Despite the military’s historical loyalty, there are compelling reasons to believe they may not stand by Maduro as steadfastly as in the past due to issues such as declining morale, desertions, and increasingly complex relations with armed groups. The system of clientelism and loyalty enforced within the military could be weakening, and there are signs that even regime supporters may defect at the polls. Observing historical precedents from Brazil and Chile, there could be a shift in military allegiance favoring democratic transition. Maduro and his allies have publicly acknowledged the uncertainties ahead and expressed willingness to negotiate post-election, potentially setting the stage for a peaceful transfer of power. The Venezuelan military faces significant challenges that could influence their support for Maduro’s regime. Unlike after the 2018 election, current conditions expose deep issues within the armed forces, including low morale and increased desertions. The military’s uneasy relationships with internal armed groups, intensified since the COVID-19 pandemic, add to their difficulties. Although the military has combated criminal gangs, operations have been brutal and ineffective, burdening lower-ranking soldiers. Moreover, Venezuelan authorities have formed a tenuous coexistence with Colombian insurgent groups such as the ELN, which operates within Venezuela and cooperates in some governance functions. Conversely, ex-FARC factions pose a direct threat by kidnapping Venezuelan soldiers, exposing the military’s vulnerabilities. Despite pressures to support the regime, military personnel may defect, influenced by the PSUV’s strained clientelist model and expanded polling stations designed to complicate election oversight. Historical precedents such as the 1989 Caracazo suggest potential fractures within the military structure. Acknowledging these uncertainties, Maduro proposes national dialogue and negotiations with the U.S. to mitigate further crises. Ultimately, serving under impartial leadership that respects democratic choices may appeal to the military, drawing lessons from Brazil and Chile’s experiences. Original text by Kristina Mani, published in -> MicrosoftStar

On July 28, up to twenty-one million Venezuelans will vote in a significant presidential and vice-presidential election, the most open contest in over a decade. The election pits incumbent President Nicolás Maduro, seeking a third six-year term, against leading opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia and eight other contenders. Maduro’s tenure has seen severe economic decline, with the GDP shrinking by approximately three-quarters and widespread poverty affecting over 80% of the population. This period also saw the migration of nearly eight million Venezuelans, escaping dire conditions to primarily other Latin American and Caribbean countries, with nearly three million now residing in Colombia. Edmundo González Urrutia, backed by the main opposition coalition Unitary Platform, currently leads in independent polls. His proposals include restoring democratic institutions, freedom of expression, and releasing political prisoners. Economically, González Urrutia supports significant reforms including privatizing state-owned enterprises and seeking international loans to address an estimated $150 billion debt. Conversely, Maduro has seen his support diminish, as his administration faces international scrutiny and has reluctantly agreed to a competitively monitored election in exchange for lifted sanctions on the oil sector. The stakes are high; a win for González Urrutia may revitalize democracy in Venezuela and stabilize the economy, while Maduro’s victory might lead to continued authoritarian governance and further emigration. Migration trends show many Venezuelans fleeing the country, with significant numbers reaching the United States. The election occurs following years of election boycotts and manipulated processes, now under international oversight, presenting a rare opportunity for change in Venezuela’s political landscape. The Venezuelan supreme court banned Machado’s candidacy in January 2024. The main opposition parties endorsed González Urrutia, but the government blocked Machado’s replacement just before the registration deadline, leading the U.S. to reinstate sectoral sanctions. The prospect of free and fair elections is questionable, with the government likely to suppress votes, arrest journalists, and disqualify candidates. Around eight million eligible voters are unregistered due to technical and administrative barriers, and few international monitors will oversee the elections. The government has increased attacks and arrests of opposition supporters and journalists. Potential election outcomes include a relatively free and fair election where Maduro could lose, a manipulated result where Maduro wins, or a scenario where González Urrutia is disqualified. González Urrutia has strong polling numbers, but low voter turnout and Maduro’s control over government resources and media could tilt the election in his favor. If Maduro loses, legal protections and international pressure might influence a peaceful transition, but dominance over judiciary and security forces could enable him to contest unfavorable results. Original text by Expert Brief by Shannon K. O’Neil and Julia Huesa. published in -> CouncilofForieignRelations

President Biden took a risk by easing sanctions on Venezuela in exchange for Nicolás Maduro’s promise of a free and fair presidential election. With the election less than two weeks away, there are concerns about its legitimacy as the government has banned the most popular opposition candidate, blocked EU monitors, and harassed opposition supporters. The U.S. and Venezuelan authorities resumed talks, and American diplomats are working to ensure the election’s integrity. If a new administration under Donald Trump comes into power, the engagement efforts may cease. Success for Biden could mean a significant foreign policy win, potentially facilitating the return of Venezuelan exiles and reducing Venezuela’s alliances with Russia, China, and Iran. It could also expand U.S. access to Venezuelan oil. Despite these hurdles, opposition candidate Edmundo González remains optimistic, leading in the polls and hoping for a transformative victory that would force Maduro into negotiations. Maduro has managed to stay in power despite economic collapse and numerous crises, including U.S. sanctions. The Biden administration’s strategy included an agreement to lift most sanctions if Maduro ensured a competitive election, but this was jeopardized when Venezuela’s supreme court ruled the leading opposition candidate, María Corina Machado, ineligible. This led to the reinstatement of some sanctions. Former U.S. Ambassador Bill Brownfield criticized the U.S. deal for being overly lenient. Maduro received all the benefits from a deal in exchange for future promises, which he did not fulfill. The opposition was largely excluded from these negotiations, but opposition leader Machado has effectively leveraged the situation. Sociologist David Smilde views the Biden administration’s efforts as successful in drawing the opposition back into electoral politics. Although Maduro initially seemed to follow a more repressive path, he has agreed to participate in elections with some international oversight. Carolina Jiménez Sandoval identifies slight progress amidst ongoing repression in Venezuela. There is regional emphasis on ensuring a peaceful transition of power if Maduro loses, with leaders like Colombia’s President Petro and Brazil’s President Lula discussing immunity for the losing side. Various proposals to protect Maduro and his allies in a post-election scenario are being explored, including parliamentary immunity and reduced sentences for implicated officials. Original text by Ana Vanessa Herrero, Samantha Schmidt and Karen DeYoung, published in->TWP

Speculation arises about whether the Biden administration’s actions are undermining Venezuela’s democratic opposition, although it isn’t explicitly seeking to do so. Recent interactions between the U.S. and the Maduro regime, including a significant meeting on July 3, have raised concerns. Historically, the Maduro regime has manipulated the electoral process, including barring opposition candidates like Maria Corina Machado and revoking invitations for EU election monitoring. The EU and human rights organizations have voiced their concern over these undermining tactics. Despite these developments, the U.S. sought meetings with Maduro’s officials. According to official statements, the U.S. aimed to push for inclusive elections, but skepticism remains regarding the efficacy of such demands. Human rights abuses, such as the detention of lawyer Rocio San Miguel, highlight ongoing oppression under Maduro. Venezuela’s oil production has significantly increased, attributed to easing U.S. sanctions and actions of firms like Chevron. However, such economic moves are unlikely to influence oil prices meaningfully and raise questions about the U.S.’ interests. Critics argue that the Biden administration may not be effectively consulting with Venezuela’s democratic opposition and could be unintentionally strengthening Maduro’s regime. An impending election raises doubts about fairness and possible subsequent U.S. actions, whether they will reignite sanctions or ease further into diplomatic ties with Maduro. The future of U.S. policy on Venezuela remains uncertain, with significant skepticism about its impact on democracy and human rights in the country. Original Text by Elliott Abrams, published in -> CouncilonForeugnRelations

En pocas palabras, el equipo de la líder de la oposición venezolana, María Corina Machado enfrenta importantes desafíos e intimidación por parte del actual régimen del chavismo mientras hace campaña en todo el país antes de las elecciones presidenciales. El periodista Luis Gonzalo Pérez, parte de la campaña de Machado, informó a Infobae que el régimen ha empleado diversas tácticas para desbaratar sus actividades. Obstáculos en las vías, ellas incluyen el uso de vehículos estatales para bloquear carreteras, la tala de árboles para obstruir carreteras y avenidas y . Se han producido incidentes específicos, como cortes de carreteras en Guárico y enfrentamientos con la policía en Caracas. Además, el régimen ha cerrado puentes, obligando al uso de embarcaciones para continuar los viajes entre estados como Guárico y Apure. Agresiones, en repetidas ocasiones, han sido acosados y agredidos por grupos oficialistas. Persecución y hostigamiento, por parte de agentes de inteligencia, incluidos agentes vestidos de civil que los seguían a diferentes lugares. Estas acciones son parte de los intentos más amplios del régimen de Maduro de obstaculizar los esfuerzos de la oposición, ya que representan una amenaza sustancial al poder del chavismo durante tres décadas, según varias encuestas. Pérez ha denunciado vigilancia y acoso continuos por parte de funcionarios de inteligencia contra él y el equipo de María Corina Machado. Amenazas a terceros, las empresas que les prestan servicios enfrentan amenazas y cierres por parte de las autoridades, incluidos hoteles y restaurantes. Sembrar miedo e incertidumbre, por ejemplo, la preocupación por posibles acciones legales contra el candidato opositor Edmundo González Urrutia y Machado, que podrían perturbar gravemente su campaña. La censura de los medios se ha intensificado, particularmente con las elecciones inminentes, desplazando en gran medida la comunicación hacia las redes sociales y el periodismo digital. Pérez contó sus experiencias personales de persecución, incluidas restricciones financieras, prohibiciones de viajar y acoso familiar. A pesar de estos desafíos, la campaña de Machado continúa obteniendo un importante apoyo público, como lo demuestra una gran participación en Táchira. El equipo tiene acceso a apoyo legal e internacional de derechos humanos para afrontar estas amenazas. La cobertura de su campaña subraya los esfuerzos del régimen venezolano por suprimir las voces de la oposición y la determinación del equipo de Machado de documentar y comunicar la situación política. Estos esfuerzos demuestran su compromiso continuo con el cambio político en Venezuela, a pesar de las severas restricciones y riesgos. Texto Original por Marcos Colombo, publicado en ->Infobaes

Venezuela’s authoritarian president, Nicolás Maduro, is encountering a pivotal moment that will decide his political future and the direction of the country. On July 28, he faces his toughest electoral challenge since assuming office in 2013, with polls showing his main opponent, Edmundo González, significantly ahead. González, a former diplomat, is supported by María Corina Machado, an opposition leader who has been actively campaigning on promises to restore democracy and reunite families. Despite Maduro’s history of manipulating election outcomes to maintain power, some speculate he might negotiate a peaceful exit or disqualify González. Other potential strategies include suppressing voter participation, inventing a crisis to postpone the vote, or tampering with the vote tally. Maduro’s government previously faced accusations of election manipulation in 2017. The election is being closely monitored by the U.S., which seeks both to promote democracy and to find a favorable partner in the oil sector. Amidst growing economic challenges and migration issues impacting President Biden’s re-election, Maduro has maintained a defiant stance, accusing opponents of planning a coup and predicting a decisive victory. Past predictions doubted Maduro’s abilities compared to his predecessor Hugo Chávez, but he has managed to sustain his grip on power. Mr. Maduro has remained in power in Venezuela despite numerous challenges over the years, including extreme economic crises with inflation rates reaching up to 65,000 percent, nationwide protests, coup attempts, assassination attempts, and Juan Guaidó’s 2019 effort to establish a parallel government. Maduro has maneuvered through these by maintaining loyalty within his ranks, strengthening international ties with countries like Iran, Russia, and China, and allegedly allowing illicit activities to fund his regime. Despite dire poll numbers, analysts like Michael Shifter suggest he remains strong but faces substantial challenges ahead of the upcoming election. Efforts to secure the election in Maduro’s favor include significant barriers for Venezuelan émigrés to register to vote, potential electoral fraud by restricting voter eligibility, renaming schools that serve as common voting sites, and creating parties with similar names to dilute opposition votes. Specifically, Venezuela’s most popular opposition figure, Ms. Machado, has been barred from running, though she actively supports fellow opposition candidate Mr. González. Maduro’s administration has been accused of targeting opposition campaigns, with several activists detained or in hiding. Independent electoral oversight will be minimal, with only the Carter Center expected to monitor the vote. Luis Lander of the Venezuelan Electoral Observatory has declared the election one of the most flawed in decades. As part of his campaign strategy, Maduro has increased salaries, initiated infrastructure projects, and promoted himself via social media while blaming U.S. sanctions for Venezuela’s economic woes. Despite a deep-rooted socialist movement, many in Venezuela struggle with fear and frustration, leading some to emigrate instead of participating in protests. If Mr. Maduro loses the election, there is speculation about negotiating an exit to avoid prosecution, though it is seen as unlikely. Observers caution that even a significant vote against Maduro may not translate into an opposition victory. Original Text by By Julie Turkewitz and Anatoly Kurmanaev, published in-> NYTimes

El último libro de Moisés Naím, “Lo que nos está pasando”, recopila sus columnas de opinión de 2016 a 2023 y profundiza en la situación política venezolana. Los dos artículos más extensos se centran en Venezuela y destacan los desafíos de lidiar con las dictaduras modernas. Naím critica el enfoque de la administración Biden hacia Venezuela, argumentando que no entienden las complejidades y capacidades de los actores involucrados. Visualiza escenarios como divisiones internas dentro del régimen chavista o conflictos civiles, pero reconoce sorpresas positivas como el apoyo público sin precedentes de María Corina Machado. Naím compara la situación en Venezuela con otros regímenes autoritarios como los de Putin y Ortega, señalando que las dictaduras modernas son resistentes debido a la falta de oportunidades de exilio y al miedo a las consecuencias legales internacionales. Señala que ni los incentivos de Biden ni las políticas de línea dura de Trump han presionado efectivamente al régimen de Nicolás Maduro. Naím enfatiza el papel crucial del ejército venezolano, que sigue siendo leal a Maduro, apoyado por aliados internacionales, creando una asimetría de poder. No obstante, sigue siendo optimista y cita éxitos inesperados como las primarias y el sólido movimiento político de Machado, que han tomado a Maduro con la guardia baja. Naím define un “estado mafioso” utilizando ejemplos como los de Vladimir Putin y Nicolás Maduro, y plantea la cuestión de si esos regímenes pueden desmantelarse democráticamente. Reconoce que los milagros políticos son posibles, citando posibles divisiones internas dentro del régimen chavista y conflictos civiles que involucran a facciones militares. Naím elogia a María Corina Machado por movilizar a una población venezolana previamente resignada contra las tácticas del régimen. Además, critica a la oposición venezolana, señalando su colapso y la necesidad de renovación, al tiempo que reconoce los sacrificios de figuras como Leopoldo López y Juan Guaidó. Naím predice que 2024 podría ser un año transformador dependiendo del resultado de las elecciones estadounidenses, contrastando el enfoque de status quo de Biden con la agenda transformadora de Trump impulsada por el populismo, la polarización y la política de posverdad. En México, Naím considera que el continuismo es más peligroso que el populismo, lo que sugiere que la continuidad electoral, como la de la sucesora de López Obrador, plantea importantes riesgos para la salud política. También comenta sobre la naturaleza transaccional de la relación entre Putin y Maduro. Por último, Naím pronostica que los problemas en Ucrania y Medio Oriente terminarán en negociaciones insatisfactorias para todas las partes involucradas. Entrevista original por Alejandro Hernández, publicado en-> LaGranAldea

La historiadora Margarita López Maya señala que el régimen de Nicolás Maduro no se ha rendido y advierte sobre posibles acciones que podría tomar si, a dos semanas de las elecciones del 28 de julio, se da cuenta de que no puede ganar ni siquiera mediante el fraude. Destaca que Venezuela aún no se encuentra en una fase de transición, ya que el partido gobernante no ha dado señales de aceptar tal resultado. Por ello, destaca la importancia de llegar a las elecciones presidenciales, pues podrían abrir la puerta a una transición. López Maya compara el liderazgo carismático de María Corina Machado, la ganadora de las primarias de la oposición, con el de Hugo Chávez, pero afirma que ganar elecciones requerirá un trabajo electoral organizado en lugar de grandes mítines. También señala que Maduro no puede eludir fácilmente las elecciones debido a presiones militares, ya que el apoyo militar depende de la celebración de las elecciones, aunque con prácticas cuestionables. El historiador subraya que la estrategia del gobierno implica manipular el proceso electoral mediante el control de los órganos electorales y el establecimiento de centros de votación en zonas donde la supervisión de la oposición es mínima. Al analizar la demografía de los votantes, López Maya señala que el número real de votantes probablemente sea mucho menor que las cifras oficiales, con muchos ciudadanos en el extranjero o fallecidos, y votantes jóvenes que muestran poco entusiasmo. Este escenario subraya la dependencia del régimen de diversas tácticas fraudulentas y mecanismos de control para asegurar una victoria. López Maya cree que la falta de voluntad del régimen para ceder el poder democráticamente es evidente, con la represión y el autoritarismo profundamente arraigados, lo que hace poco probable una transición negociada. Ella considera que las negociaciones políticas actuales son meras tácticas para aliviar las tensiones y ganar tiempo para el régimen, en lugar de pasos hacia una transición política genuina. La entrevista analiza las razones de la negativa del gobierno venezolano a aceptar la oposición y las garantías internacionales para una transición pacífica del poder. La mentalidad autoritaria de los militares, combinada con una ideología socialista que desestima la democracia, contribuye a su desgana. Además, el miedo a rendir cuentas por violaciones de derechos humanos exacerba su falta de voluntad para ceder el control. Las expectativas internacionales incluyen brindar garantías postelectorales al chavismo y presionar para que se celebren elecciones justas. Incentivos como la eliminación de sanciones podrían ayudar a fracturar los rangos medios e inferiores del régimen, debilitando al alto mando. Las elecciones primarias de la oposición venezolana han revelado los errores de cálculo estratégicos del régimen, simbolizando un cambio hacia la esperanza electoral. A pesar del desencanto de los jóvenes con las ideologías y la preferencia por oportunidades económicas para evitar la migración, ven a líderes como María Corina Machado como representaciones de honestidad y gobernanza pragmática. María Corina es retratada como una líder carismática y tecnocrática que aprovecha el descontento público con la política tradicional. Su éxito electoral y su postura consistente han obtenido un importante apoyo público similar al sentimiento antisistema observado durante el ascenso de Hugo Chávez. La discordia interna dentro del partido gobernante, evidenciada por figuras contrastantes como Diosdado Cabello y Jorge Rodríguez, sugiere posibles fracturas, particularmente a medida que se acercan elecciones cruciales. En el futuro puede haber una mayor inestabilidad o negociaciones forzadas si un fraude electoral masivo genera indignación pública. Entrevista original por Alejandro Hernandez, publicada en -> LaGranAldea