Without negotiations and elections, what is the alternative? Increased political violence will only lead to additional repression and human rights violations. Venezuela needs to find a way to transform political conflict in order to start rebuilding its institutions. As such, other countries in the Americas and Europe should strengthen the formal negotiation process, look for incentives and creative solutions, and accompany Venezuelans in their push for democracy. For its part, the United States must empower, not undermine, the opposition’s role in the negotiation process. It is up to Venezuelans to decide their fate with the international community’s support. In this crucial moment, negotiations might be the only hope. By Laura Cristina Dib. Full Text -> WOLA

 Al indagar sobre el “encadenamiento de variables” que contribuyó al inicio de una transición a la democracia en 102 casos, encontramos que las elecciones jugaron un rol importante en no menos de 43. Es en este marco donde resulta útil analizar el comportamiento de las variables de contexto -estructurales e institucionales- y de agencia -las interacciones entre actores- que estuvieron presentes (i) en los episodios exitosos de democratización; (ii) en los episodios fallidos; (iii) en los censurados, y; (iv) en los que casos de países que no experimentaron una transición a la democracia durante un período prolongado. En próximas entregas nos ocuparemos, del modo más didáctico posible, de este y otros temas.Por John Magdaleno. Texto Completo-> RevistaIdea

Courtesy Translation-> When inquiring about the “chain of variables” that contributed to the beginning of a transition to democracy in 102 cases, we found that elections played an important role in no less than 43. It is in this framework that it is useful to analyze the behavior of the context variables -structural and institutional- and agency Variables -the interactions between actors- that were present (i) in the successful episodes of democratization; (ii) in failed episodes; (iii) in the censored, and; (iv) in which cases of countries that did not experience a transition to democracy for a prolonged period. In future installments we will deal, in the most didactic way possible, with this and other topics.