The political movement founded by the late President Hugo Chávez is facing significant challenges ahead of the 28 July presidential election in Venezuela. Opinion polls indicate that most voters are seeking change, posing a threat to Nicolás Maduro’s government, according to an analysis by the International Crisis Group. The opposition has unified behind a single candidate, Edmundo González, after the primary winner Maria Corina Machado was barred from running, contrasting with their previous strategies of denouncing fraud and boycotting elections. Chavismo, the political movement, shows internal complexities as it tries to retain power, which may lead to increased authoritarian measures. The movement consists of various factions with differing views on democracy, impacting their election strategies and response to potential defeat. Historically, Chavismo united diverse groups but has seen declining support due to Venezuela’s economic collapse. Leaders within Chavismo claim a commitment to democratic principles but emphasize the necessity of staying in power to achieve their goals. Criticism arises as leaders accumulate wealth while the majority of Venezuelans face poverty. The fear of losing power and facing potential persecution drives the movement’s cohesion, especially with hardline opposition figures like Maria Corina Machado. Mid- and higher-ranking officials within the government show varying levels of optimism about the election, with grassroots activists feeling pessimistic due to widespread disillusionment. Top leaders are aware of declining support but hope to win if abstention is high and the opposition vote remains divided, employing strategies to appeal to a broader audience and negotiate fairer electoral conditions. Facing a potential loss, the government has reverted to confrontational tactics, evoking Chávez’s legacy and accusing the opposition of being traitors. The Maduro government’s acceptance of an opposition victory is uncertain. They may resort to measures ensuring high abstention and disqualification of strong candidates to secure a victory, aiming for election legitimacy to have sanctions lifted. Original Text by Demian, published in-> msnnews

“Chavismo”, the political movement founded by the late Hugo Chávez, faces significant challenges as it approaches the upcoming presidential election on 28 July. President Nicolás Maduro’s government struggles with deep unpopularity amid economic collapse and a severe humanitarian crisis that has driven over 7.5 million Venezuelans to leave the country. Opinion polls indicate a strong desire for change among voters, and the opposition, for the first time united behind a single candidate, Edmundo González, looks poised to capitalize on this sentiment. Opposition parties, instead of boycotting as in the past, have committed to participate in the election. Within Chavismo, there are deep divisions and varying perspectives on the election. Some factions are committed to democratic principles, while others lean towards more authoritarian tactics to maintain power. Despite a drop in grassroots support, with widespread disenchantment in former strongholds, some mid- and higher-ranking officials remain optimistic, believing their narrative that their base remains loyal and that opposition collaboration with the U.S. is to blame for Venezuela’s plight. The movement’s cohesion is threatened by these internal contradictions and the fear that an opposition victory could erase Chavismo’s influence. Top political leaders in Venezuela, despite recognizing declining support, believe they can win the presidential election by securing around 30% of the vote if abstention rates exceed 50% and the opposition vote splits. They have attempted to reframe their rhetoric by stressing economic recovery, private investment, and adopting a neutral color scheme. In 2023, an agreement was reached in Barbados for fair election conditions, but the government continued to hinder opposition unity, notably blocking candidate María Corina Machado. Facing a potential defeat, the government reverted to confrontation, invoking Hugo Chávez’s legacy and emphasizing U.S. sanctions as the cause of Venezuela’s economic woes. Officials argued that fair elections are impossible under current sanctions, accusing the U.S. of breaking promises tied to lifting these sanctions. The government frames the election as a battle against U.S. influence, using anti-imperialist rhetoric. Chavistas fear persecution if the opposition wins, fostering unity despite dissatisfaction with Maduro. María Corina Machado’s disqualification has made her a popular figure, intensifying chavista fears of a harsh crackdown if they lose, thus motivating them to prevent an opposition victory. The Maduro government faces a critical challenge in accepting a potential opposition victory in the 2025 elections. Ideally, the government would win a fair election to gain internal and external legitimacy and lift sanctions. However, with the opposition united and poor living conditions persisting for many Venezuelans, this outcome appears unlikely. The government is expected to manipulate the electoral process to avoid defeat, employing tactics like last-minute polling site changes, welfare benefits exchange for votes, and candidate disqualification, aiming to ensure over 50% abstention. Historically, uncompetitive elections have led to sanctions, yet the government believes international responses might be milder this time, given previous sanctions’ ineffectiveness in ousting chavismo and concerns over worsening conditions and migration. Should the government lose, Maduro and his allies would seek guarantees like personal safety, immunity from prosecution, political roles, and military stability, possibly negotiating power-sharing. Ensuring a fair election will require efforts to deter chavista sabotage, and foreign powers should incentivize non-interference. Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva support a post-election pact proposal, though internal government fractures and perceived weaknesses pose risks. The government’s unity is its strength, but the stakes of losing may diminish the prospects for a fair and competitive election. Original Text published by-> CrisisGroup

A shift in political allegiances could boost the opposition’s prospects in the upcoming July 28 Venezuelan presidential election. María Corina Machado, a prominent opposition figure banned from running, has been rallying support for Edmundo González Urrutia, the opposition’s candidate. Traditionally a Chavista stronghold, the western state of Trujillo witnessed surprising support for Machado, even from government supporters. Machado’s rallies in other states like Portuguesa signal a changing political landscape, potentially undermining the Chavista socialist regime led by President Nicolás Maduro. However, the level of support remains uncertain. Felix Seijas of Delphos polling notes that while some “soft Chavistas” show curiosity towards the opposition, this interest is not widespread, though Machado’s primary win in 2023 has increased her profile. With over 21 million registered voters, these shifts could be crucial. González Urrutia, who leads in voter intention according to ORC Consultores, benefits from Machado’s support and endorsements from key opposition figures and a broad coalition of over 30 parties. Despite the growing support, analysts like Mark Feierstein caution that the election outcome remains unpredictable. The declining popularity of Chavismo in Venezuela is linked to the nature of its base’s loyalty, which historian Margarita López Maya argues is driven more by clientelism than ideology. Under Maduro’s regime, provision of bonuses, food assistance, and public employment has been critical. However, due to economic hardships, 65% of Venezuelans earn less than $100 a month and suffer from high inflation, scarce credit, and a meager minimum wage. This economic stagnation has decreased enthusiasm and mobilization among Chavismo’s core supporters, primarily in rural and low-income areas. As these traditional Chavista sectors show discontent, Machado’s message of political change and hope has gained traction. The migratory crisis, with around eight million Venezuelans living abroad, has further weakened Chavismo’s base. Meanwhile, opposition figures, like González Urrutia and Machado, are attracting support by addressing aspirations for a better life. Despite this shift, the opposition faces significant challenges, including potential judicial barred from the ballot and geopolitical tensions with Guyana that could derail elections. Political scientist Paola Bautista de Alemán mentions that while the future is uncertain, a sense of change is palpable. Original Text by Toni Frangie Mawad, published in-> AmericanQuarterly

Resumen del último capítulo ¿Qué lecciones pueden aprenderse?

Los problemas socioeconómicos y sociopolíticos durante muchos años han llevado a la erosión de la democracia venezolana y al surgimiento de un régimen autoritario. Este declive, impulsado por cambios globales que causan trastornos sociales y malestar poblacional, ha dado lugar a líderes populistas que erosionan los principios democráticos. Los gobiernos venezolanos de la última década del siglo XX no lograron gestionar el severo impacto de su decisión de cambiar su enfoque hacia orientaciones neoliberales, y se negaron a justificar sus razones ante los ciudadanos. Las políticas se implementaron a pesar de la ausencia de consenso, desviándose de los principios democráticos. Las acusaciones de corrupción debilitaron aún más la confianza en el sistema político. El Caracazo de 1989 demostró la magnitud de la insatisfacción y la incapacidad del gobierno para responder con eficacia, y en última instancia allanó el camino para la aparición de un líder populista. Estos acontecimientos subrayan la necesidad crítica de élites responsables con auténticas intenciones democráticas, dispuestas a priorizar las soluciones institucionales y el bien público por encima de los intereses personales. Además, la trayectoria venezolana pone de relieve el poder corrosivo de la polarización política y sus efectos perjudiciales para la democracia. Se cree que la implementación de una educación pública de calidad que promueva la tolerancia, el respeto por las diferencias, la coexistencia pacífica y el aprecio por las instituciones y prácticas democráticas es crucial para revertir tales prácticas adversas. Se enfatiza la necesidad crítica de información veraz y un discurso abierto para contrarrestar los efectos divisivos de la polarización política. Es esencial un discurso democrático que destaque la verdad, la honestidad, la complejidad social y la diversidad. En el contexto de los acuerdos políticos, las estrategias y medidas pueden salvaguardar a la sociedad de quienes distorsionan la realidad mediante posverdades, medias verdades y noticias falsas para corroer la coexistencia pacífica y democrática. La polarización política debe abordarse con estrategias integrales, no de confrontación. Utilizando la situación de Venezuela como ejemplo, la política contra las autocracias debería evitar tácticas directas. Las acciones sociopolíticas exitosas implican enfoques menos conflictivos, más graduales e institucionales. Sin embargo, la dictadura de Maduro, respaldada por una coalición de grupos militares y civiles y importantes países autocráticos internacionales, controla Venezuela. Las estrategias de las organizaciones y partidos de la sociedad civil luchan por impulsar un proceso de redemocratización. Si bien las fuerzas democráticas cuentan con apoyo internacional, estrategias como las sanciones estadounidenses son las que tienen más probabilidades de persuadir a la dictadura a realizar una transición hacia la democracia, aunque enfrente muchos obstáculos. A pesar de la difícil situación, una gran parte de la población (más del 80%) desea un cambio político. Por lo tanto, acontecimientos esperanzadores, como las exitosas elecciones primarias de la oposición en 2023, pueden conducir a una redemocratización si el gobierno garantiza garantías civiles y políticas para unas elecciones competitivas y transparentes. Texto Original por Margarita López Maya publicado en -> RevistaMexicanadeSociología

Drug trafficking can exist for purposes other than profit. That is especially true when we consider the Venezuela Threat Network and its founder, Hugo Chávez. The Venezuelan strongman was not a mere populist who became an anti-American socialist after years of U.S. aggression. Rather Chávez and his Bolivarian Revolution were from the outset dedicated to the development and deployment of illicit drugs for purposes of asymmetric warfare against the United States.by David Grantham and José Gustavo Arocha. Full Text -> SecureFreeSociety

Traducción de cortesía -> El narcotráfico puede existir con fines distintos al lucrativo. Eso es especialmente cierto cuando consideramos la Red de Amenazas de Venezuela y su fundador, Hugo Chávez. El hombre fuerte venezolano no fue un mero populista que se convirtió en un socialista antiestadounidense después de años de agresión estadounidense. Más bien, Chávez y su Revolución Bolivariana se dedicaron desde un principio al desarrollo y despliegue de drogas ilícitas con fines de guerra asimétrica contra Estados Unidos.

El pago de sobornos para la obtención de contratos públicos se vivió en casi todas las dependencias del Estado venezolano durante las gestiones de Chávez y Maduro, pero tuvo especial protagonismo en servicios para el sector petrolero, operaciones financieras, construcción de viviendas e importación de alimentos y medicinas, en medio de una severa escasez que desbordó los casos de desnutrición en el país y las muertes por falta de fármacos. En Estados Unidos, España, Ecuador, Brasil, México y Colombia se rastrearon oficialmente 25 casos en los que se probó o se investiga el pago de comisiones a funcionarios venezolanos a cambio de conseguir contratos con Petróleos de Venezuela y sus filiales, la Oficina Nacional del Tesoro, el Banco de Desarrollo Económico y Social, la Corporación Eléctrica Nacional, la Electricidad de Caracas y la Corporación Única de Servicios Productivos y Alimentarios. Las personas señaladas en estas acusaciones e identificadas para esta investigación son 137 entre naturales y jurídicas. Texto Completo -> ChavismoInc

︎For English text, use Google’s translator at the bottom ︎

A story of a train project illustrates the rot that inevitably develops behind a charismatic leader’s cult of personality. By William Neuman. Full Text -> TheAtlantic

Traducción de cortesía -> La historia de un proyecto de tren ilustra la podredumbre que inevitablemente se desarrolla detrás del culto a la personalidad de un líder carismático.

En países como Panamá, una de las encrucijadas financieras del mundo por sus facilidades, se calcula que clientes venezolanos habían inyectado al sistema bancario más de 2.800 millones de dólares hasta 2019. El expresidente mexicano Vicente Fox acuñó en su momento una frase que dio una clave para entender el fenómeno: “El mejor ministro de Economía que ha tenido Panamá es Hugo Chávez”. Fue justamente en ese país donde un banquero alemán tejió las complejas madejas de uno de los mayores esquemas de lavado de dinero procedente de Petróleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa), por 1.200 millones de dólares, y el cual involucró según las investigaciones, desde familiares de Cilia Flores, esposa de Maduro y “primera combatiente” de Venezuela, a exfuncionarios y jóvenes contratistas. Como se acredita en Chavismo INC., nombres pesados del poder, de las contrataciones públicas y de las fórmulas del desfalco tuvieron empresas en el istmo (ver aquí). Texto Completo-> Chavi$moinc

At the root of the Venezuelan diaspora is a self-proclaimed anti-imperialist regime’s failure to recognize its own settler-colonial realities. It is possible to spend decades debating the political theories and ethics behind the current humanitarian crises, but in the meanwhile, individuals are living through the real and tangible implications. Therefore, it is important to understand that decolonization should never become a metaphor as promises are being broken and families are being shattered. By Andrés Triana. Full Text-> HarvardPoliticalReview

The thing about first-world leftists who support chavismo is that they don’t realize they embody the imperialistic dynamics they criticize. These people have no problem looking a Venezuelan in the eye and saying they know better about the country where our mothers gave birth and our dead are buried. They support those in power over those who are powerless. Their desire to center themselves in every story means they revel in the empty anti-Yankee rhetoric of chavismo, denying agency to any and all opposition movements by simply uttering three letters: C-I-A. By Naihobe Gonzalez. Full Text -> CaracasChronicles