Some Chavistas Are Quietly Drifting Toward the Opposition 

A shift in political allegiances could boost the opposition’s prospects in the upcoming July 28 Venezuelan presidential election. María Corina Machado, a prominent opposition figure banned from running, has been rallying support for Edmundo González Urrutia, the opposition’s candidate. Traditionally a Chavista stronghold, the western state of Trujillo witnessed surprising support for Machado, even from government supporters. Machado’s rallies in other states like Portuguesa signal a changing political landscape, potentially undermining the Chavista socialist regime led by President Nicolás Maduro. However, the level of support remains uncertain. Felix Seijas of Delphos polling notes that while some “soft Chavistas” show curiosity towards the opposition, this interest is not widespread, though Machado’s primary win in 2023 has increased her profile. With over 21 million registered voters, these shifts could be crucial. González Urrutia, who leads in voter intention according to ORC Consultores, benefits from Machado’s support and endorsements from key opposition figures and a broad coalition of over 30 parties. Despite the growing support, analysts like Mark Feierstein caution that the election outcome remains unpredictable. The declining popularity of Chavismo in Venezuela is linked to the nature of its base’s loyalty, which historian Margarita López Maya argues is driven more by clientelism than ideology. Under Maduro’s regime, provision of bonuses, food assistance, and public employment has been critical. However, due to economic hardships, 65% of Venezuelans earn less than $100 a month and suffer from high inflation, scarce credit, and a meager minimum wage. This economic stagnation has decreased enthusiasm and mobilization among Chavismo’s core supporters, primarily in rural and low-income areas. As these traditional Chavista sectors show discontent, Machado’s message of political change and hope has gained traction. The migratory crisis, with around eight million Venezuelans living abroad, has further weakened Chavismo’s base. Meanwhile, opposition figures, like González Urrutia and Machado, are attracting support by addressing aspirations for a better life. Despite this shift, the opposition faces significant challenges, including potential judicial barred from the ballot and geopolitical tensions with Guyana that could derail elections. Political scientist Paola Bautista de Alemán mentions that while the future is uncertain, a sense of change is palpable. Original Text by Toni Frangie Mawad, published in-> AmericanQuarterly

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