How Venezuela’s election could upend the geopolitics of the Americas

This Sunday’s presidential election in Venezuela, contested by opposition candidate Edmundo González against incumbent Nicolas Maduro, is fraught with tension and uncertainty. Maduro, in power since 2013, has been criticized for electoral fraud and using public institutions to maintain control. Recent reports indicate over 70 arbitrary detentions during the election campaign, but the opposition’s campaign has revitalized its support base, making this Maduro’s toughest electoral challenge in 25 years. The stakes are high, with Venezuela’s economic future on the line. Under Maduro, Venezuela has suffered severe economic decline, exacerbated by US sanctions. If González wins, there is potential for significant change, including the lifting of sanctions and Venezuela leveraging its vast oil reserves to become an energy hub. The international implications of an upcoming election in Venezuela could be significant. If Nicolás Maduro secures victory, it is anticipated that migration from Venezuela will continue, with 18% of surveyed Venezuelans intending to leave by year-end. Maduro’s government remains closely aligned with China, Iran, and Russia, while isolating Venezuela from regional entities like the Organization of American States and Mercosur. Conversely, a win by democratic opposition candidate Gonzalez would be historic, potentially shifting geopolitical dynamics. Gonzalez aims to restore ties with democratic nations, work with international financial organizations, and depoliticize state institutions. His victory could symbolize a revival of representative democracy against a backdrop of global democratic crises. Original text by Stefano Pozzebon, published in -> MicrosoftStar

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