How to get Venezuela out of its cycle of conflict.

Hope is high in Venezuela due to the recent shift from isolating and sanctioning the Maduro regime to pursuing a negotiated resolution, culminating in an election set for July 28th. However, the broader challenge involves creating a national reconciliation framework to heal decades of division and establish peaceful coexistence among various political and social factions, including security forces. Historically, international strategies toward Venezuela moved from encouraging democracy through engagement to applying maximum pressure aimed at regime change, and recently, back to selective re-engagement with Maduro’s government. This latest approach aligns more closely with the Venezuelan people’s preferences against sanctions and for elections and change. Historically, the Punto Fijo Pact, an agreement among major political entities from 1958 to 1998, provided relative stability but failed to adapt to broader inclusion and economic shifts, leading to eventual crisis and Chávez’s rise. For the current election to be meaningful, Venezuela needs a comprehensive agreement that ensures long-term reconciliation and governance, beyond just the electoral process. There are multiple proposals for reconciliation in Venezuela, urging the establishment of political and social harmony. Former Colombian Foreign Minister Álvaro Leyva suggests a shared governance model similar to Colombia’s National Front from the late 1950s. Colombian President Gustavo Petro has proposed a referendum to affirm principles of reconciliation. Analyst Francisco Rodriguez recommends an inclusive political settlement drawn from peace mediation strategies, advocating for institutional reforms to ensure power-sharing. His plan includes dual-track negotiations focusing on political reform and immediate humanitarian aid, leading to a national unity government post-2024 elections. Víctor Álvarez, a Venezuelan analyst, has presented a detailed “Pact of Peaceful Coexistence Between the Candidates for the Presidency of the Republic,” which involves constitutional and legal guarantees, amnesty for political offenses, and the reinstitutionalization of public powers. His proposal emphasizes the need for political coexistence, cohabitation, and cooperation at various government levels to ensure a peaceful transition. Álvarez also underlines the importance of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB) in supporting the electoral results and facilitating the alternation of power. Additionally, the sensitive issue of Transitional Justice is included to balance justice and accountability without creating a “Pact of Impunity.” Álvarez argues for a comprehensive approach that encompasses truth, justice, reparation for victims, and reconciliation. Civil society leaders have also advocated for a shared vision for Venezuela, promoting unity through common values and increasing tolerance. Drawing parallel to South Africa’s transition from Apartheid, the text highlights the need for resolute leaders to guide Venezuela towards societal healing and institutional renewal, similar to how Nelson Mandela and Frederik Willem de Klerk steered their nation. This approach aims to move Venezuela towards political peace, economic growth, and social welfare. Original Text by Keith Mines, published in-> USIP

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