Don’t Count Venezuela’s Opposition Out Just Yet

President Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela is likely to sustain power following the July elections, despite its lowest popularity. Maduro’s resilience stems from his political acuteness to resist international antagonism and his use of aggressive domestic repression, leading to mass deaths, imprisonments, and forced exiles. He has manipulated legislative rules to curb opposition, and his regime managed to withstand former President Trump’s sanctions, low oil prices, and Russia’s withdrawal of support mainly due to Venezuela’s economic sanctions. A range of strategic options including vote manipulation, election rigging, or mass repression could keep Maduro in power. However, an unexpected semblance of optimism is emerging within Venezuela’s opposition due to recent developments. For an opposition victory, four conditions are necessary – active participation in elections despite biases, unity behind a single candidate, international pressure making repression challenging, and a safe exit strategy for the regime. The opposition now aligns behind Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, a retired diplomat. The Biden administration’s alleviated sanctions have been beneficial here for his candidacy. Any transition of power will involve complex negotiations requiring making unpalatable compromises to Hugo Chavistas, who retain control over all other state institutions. Recent incidents like Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei’s political transition denote that the seemingly impossible can be feasible, indicating a similar possibility for Venezuela. Maduro’s regime appears jittery over the new narrative being spun by the opposition, indicating cracks in his regime’s image and power hold. Full Text by James Bosworth->MicrosoftStar

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