Biden made a bold deal with Maduro. Will it pay off?

President Biden took a risk by easing sanctions on Venezuela in exchange for Nicolás Maduro’s promise of a free and fair presidential election. With the election less than two weeks away, there are concerns about its legitimacy as the government has banned the most popular opposition candidate, blocked EU monitors, and harassed opposition supporters. The U.S. and Venezuelan authorities resumed talks, and American diplomats are working to ensure the election’s integrity. If a new administration under Donald Trump comes into power, the engagement efforts may cease. Success for Biden could mean a significant foreign policy win, potentially facilitating the return of Venezuelan exiles and reducing Venezuela’s alliances with Russia, China, and Iran. It could also expand U.S. access to Venezuelan oil. Despite these hurdles, opposition candidate Edmundo González remains optimistic, leading in the polls and hoping for a transformative victory that would force Maduro into negotiations. Maduro has managed to stay in power despite economic collapse and numerous crises, including U.S. sanctions. The Biden administration’s strategy included an agreement to lift most sanctions if Maduro ensured a competitive election, but this was jeopardized when Venezuela’s supreme court ruled the leading opposition candidate, María Corina Machado, ineligible. This led to the reinstatement of some sanctions. Former U.S. Ambassador Bill Brownfield criticized the U.S. deal for being overly lenient. Maduro received all the benefits from a deal in exchange for future promises, which he did not fulfill. The opposition was largely excluded from these negotiations, but opposition leader Machado has effectively leveraged the situation. Sociologist David Smilde views the Biden administration’s efforts as successful in drawing the opposition back into electoral politics. Although Maduro initially seemed to follow a more repressive path, he has agreed to participate in elections with some international oversight. Carolina Jiménez Sandoval identifies slight progress amidst ongoing repression in Venezuela. There is regional emphasis on ensuring a peaceful transition of power if Maduro loses, with leaders like Colombia’s President Petro and Brazil’s President Lula discussing immunity for the losing side. Various proposals to protect Maduro and his allies in a post-election scenario are being explored, including parliamentary immunity and reduced sentences for implicated officials. Original text by Ana Vanessa Herrero, Samantha Schmidt and Karen DeYoung, published in->TWP

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